Record completions, falling launches: reading Dubai's supply cycle as an off-plan buyer

Figures as of 1 October 2026.

Talk of "too many homes" in Dubai has grown louder this year. The reports behind that talk show two things happening together: an unusually heavy wave of completions now, and a sharp fall in new projects being started. For an off-plan buyer, both halves matter. Below we set out what each research house reported, keeping their figures separate, since firms define prices, rents and completions differently.

Prices: soft, not collapsing

Cavendish Maxwell's monthly index recorded an August 2026 average near AED 1,636 per sq ft, roughly 1.7% under August 2025, and about 1.3% lower across the latest three months. It is the first annual decline since February 2021, during the pandemic.

To give a sense of scale, a fall below 2% on an AED 1,500,000 home is roughly AED 25,000.

CBRE, measuring at the end of June, still found prices about 1.9% higher year on year. With different methods and dates, the safest reading is flat to slightly lower.

Transactions: fewer deals, more mortgages

According to Cavendish Maxwell, about 79,300 homes changed hands in January–June 2026, with a combined value near AED 221 billion: a drop of about 14% in units and about 16% less value than the same period of 2025.

Off-plan still made up about 75% of sales, with ready homes around 25%. Off-plan volumes fell about 9%; ready sales fell further, about 26%. Mortgages rose around 7%, to about 22,500, which points to more buyers financing homes to live in rather than paying cash purely to invest.

August on its own saw about 10,900 sales with a value of roughly AED 23.4 billion, around 14% below July.

Completions: the busiest stretch in years

Cavendish Maxwell counts about 24,800 homes completed in H1 2026, up about 38% on H1 2025. Roughly 18,900 were apartments and 5,900 villas and townhouses. CBRE's count for the same period is about 18,000; the gap comes from how each firm defines "completed".

Launches: the figure that shapes 2029–2030

When a developer launches a project, the homes typically take three to four years to build. Today's launches therefore hint at supply several years out.

Cavendish Maxwell recorded about 102,000 homes across 410 projects launched in H1 2025, against about 28,000 homes across 124 projects in H1 2026, around 70% fewer. Cushman & Wakefield also reports a steep drop: apartment launches down roughly 58% and villa launches down roughly 78% in H1 2026.

Schedules versus handovers

Pipeline headlines usually describe planned homes. Around 47,000 homes are scheduled for completion in July–December 2026; Cavendish Maxwell forecasts that just 14,000–23,500 or so will actually be handed over by year end, the rest slipping into later periods. For the full year, Cushman & Wakefield projects roughly 55,600 deliveries, a total that would remain the highest since 2008.

Further out, schedules show about 162,500 homes due in 2027 and 128,200 in 2028. Given how often schedules slip, actual numbers are likely to come in lower.

Rents: easing, though reports differ

CBRE recorded April–June 2026 rents roughly 6.2% below the prior quarter and about 2.6% lower year on year. Cavendish Maxwell's figures showed a quarterly dip of about 2.5%, with an annual rise of about 7.8% still in place. Both agree rents stopped rising and began to ease in 2026.

Apartments, villas and offices

From Cavendish Maxwell's H1 2026 data:

• Apartments: 84% of off-plan sales and 80% of ready sales; typical gross yield about 7%. Dubai South led off-plan apartment sales with 7,306; top ready area JVC (1,812).
• Villas and townhouses (reported together): 15% of off-plan and 20% of ready sales; typical gross yield about 5%. Top off-plan area DAMAC Islands 2 (3,192); top ready area DAMAC Hills 2 (410).

Gross yield is annual rent as a share of price, before costs. We could not find verifiable August 2026 price figures split between apartments and villas.

Offices are moving the other way. CBRE reports average Dubai office rents climbing roughly 13% over the twelve months to June 2026, prime offices about 16%, with occupancy near 94%, leaving DIFC, TECOM and DMCC especially tight. Certain companies are pre-leasing in unfinished buildings.

What this means if you are buying off-plan

Markets run in cycles: heavy supply gives buyers and tenants choice and softens prices and rents, then developers start less, and fewer homes arrive later. The current numbers show both stages at once. We do not forecast where prices go next.

Practically, the delivery data is the clearest signal. With schedules slipping, review how a developer has handed over its earlier projects, and read what your contract provides if handover is late.

How we help

We can pull together a developer's past handover record and walk you through the delay clauses in a sale and purchase agreement before you commit, so the timeline you plan around is realistic.

Sources

• Cavendish Maxwell, Dubai residential market H1 2026 (press release on Zawya, July 2026).
• Cavendish Maxwell August 2026 price index, reported by Khaleej Times, 7 September 2026.
• CBRE, UAE Real Estate Market Review Q2 2026, reported by Gulf News, 29 July 2026.
• Cushman & Wakefield Core, H1 2026, reported by Khaleej Times, 20 August 2026.

Firms define completions, prices and rents differently; their figures are shown separately and never combined. Rules and fees change, so confirm on official sources before acting.

General information, not investment advice. Figures are from the reports cited and may be revised.